Hillary and Guiliani lead the field - Obama and McCain close behind.

The latest Gallup poll shows Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama by 12 percent among Democrats and Democrat leading independents. To me the most amazing thing about that is that he is in clear second place now, ahead of John Edwards (about to embark on his own publicity blitz) and Al Gore, riding on the coattails of "An Inconvienent Truth".

Given the enormous name recognition advantage that Hillary has in this race, I think her comparatively narrow lead at this stage speaks clearly to problems many Dems have with her. These problems I think are in two broad categories. 1) They percieve her as too polarizing a figure, and worry that she can never be elected because too many people hate her, and 2) They percieve her as "false", someone who will do anything to be elected. As a Democrat friend of mine recently put it - "I wouldn't buy a car from her".

Personally I believe Hillary can win. Bush is I believe at least as polarizing, and "won" twice. Plus if Hillary can hold every state Kerry did (not a difficult task) she only has to win one more (Ohio?) to get elected. In short, no matter who the Democratic candidate is in '08, they should have a good chance.

All that said, it doesn't mean she is the best candidate the Democrats can put forward, and at this stage I believe Obama is. The country appears so dissolusioned right now, that a truly charismatic, open "new" yet smart politician could just be the tonic that the country collectively feels it needs. And despite everything, I even believe there is a chance that Hillary might not run. She has the advantage of not having to enter the race eccessively early, due to her ability to raise money, name recognition and broad assumption that she will enter the race. So if she wishes, she can sit on the sidelines and observe for a while. If the Clintons see the Obama momentum become unstoppable, then she may sit out after all. If she thinks she won't win the primaries, I don't expect to see her at the starting line.

As for the Republicans, don't expect Giulinani (currently leading McCain) to stay in front for long. A party that is so caught up wrestling with its social agenda will not be able to fall square behind such a socially liberal figure. However, if he fails to get the nomination, I wonder if he would think of doing a Lieberman and running as an independent? Intruiging thought.